The last two years combined, he’s hit 66. In Harper’s massive breakout season, he hit 42 homers. He’s shown it in the WBC, and although it was just one ball in play, I’ll note that it was Machado who hit the would-be homer that Adam Jones famously took away over the weekend. The image of Harper is one of a slugger, but you definitely shouldn’t sell Machado’s power short. I can’t very well embed one video without embedding a second: I’m not going to lie to you - it’s persuasive. If Harper can do what he did while hurt, what if he were healthy again? Yeah.
The injury excuse, however, is compelling. Some people have suggested that Harper’s approach just got screwed up, by how often he was pitched around. It was a season that matched the hype, and Harper looked that good again early last year, before his numbers suddenly dropped. We’ve seen Harper play at a Hall-of-Fame level. We don’t have a smoking gun, but there’s enough smoke in the air, which makes Harper so damned intriguing. Even when he wasn’t at his best, he was still a net positive for his team. Harper’s a prideful guy, and he doesn’t seem like one to lean on excuses. There’s the simple matter of Harper’s power and exit velocity dropping off. There were frequent rumors of injury, and there were some missed ballgames. However, there’s no shortage of circumstantial evidence. There’s never been proof that Harper played through some sort of significant injury. What we don’t have is a clear explanation for why Harper’s wRC+ last year suddenly dropped by 85 points. There’s still some mystery about what happened. I wouldn’t exactly describe his home runs as effortless, like I would a typical Chris Davis bomb, but Harper looks like a slugger. But if you were just looking for signs of life, there’s a there there. Obviously, the “spring-training” part might render the numbers meaningless - Harper shares the lead with Peter O’Brien. Harper is currently tied for the MLB lead in spring-training home runs, with six. The struggling version of Harper consistently worked the zone and worked the count, which would seem to bode well in the event that Harper re-discovers his swing. Even last year, when Harper’s performance plummeted, he still finished with the league’s highest walk rate, and he spent more time in hitter-friendly counts than everyone but David Ortiz. He had the best batting season since Barry Bonds‘ 2004. Mike Trout has done it a bunch, which is why he isn’t exactly fair, but Harper once proved himself to be that good. Over the past decade, four position players have had seasons worth 9 WAR or better. Harper, as shown above, has topped out at 9.5.
Machado’s great and all, but he has yet to reach the 7-WAR level.
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